Best Fix and Flip Markets in 2026: Where the Data Says to Invest

A comprehensive, data-driven analysis of where flipping actually works—backed by ATTOM metrics, foreclosure data, and market fundamentals.

Let’s start with the uncomfortable truth: national flip margins hit a 17-year low in Q3 2025. According to ATTOM’s quarterly home flipping report, the typical gross ROI dropped to 23.1% – the lowest since 2008. Gross profits fell to $60,000 per flip, down from $73,554 a year earlier.

But here’s the thing about national averages: they’re useless for making actual investment decisions. While Phoenix flippers are posting single-digit returns and Austin operators are barely breaking even ($8,844 gross profit in 2024), investors in Cleveland posted a 72% gross ROI—nearly triple the national average. Pittsburgh hit 106.8% in Q2 2025. Buffalo exceeded 109%.

The flip market didn’t die. It got extremely local. And the investors who understand this shift are cleaning up while everyone else complains about margins.

Our fix-and-flip loan program is built for this environment: fast funding, up to 95% LTC including up to 100% of rehab, and the flexibility to move when you find a deal that pencils.

The National Picture: A Decade of Compression

Before diving into specific markets, you need to understand what’s happened to flip economics over time. This isn’t a temporary dip—it’s a structural shift in how the math works.

Historical ROI Trajectory

• 2016: 54% gross ROI — the high-water mark of the past decade
• 2020: 45.8% gross ROI — pre-pandemic, still healthy
• 2022: 34% gross ROI — compression begins
• 2023: 28.6% gross ROI — margins continue falling
• 2024: 29.6% gross ROI — slight rebound
• Q3 2025: 23.1% gross ROI — lowest since 2008

The ROI on median-priced flips has dropped 25 percentage points from the 2016 peak. That’s not a cycle—it’s a reset. The investors who adapt will thrive; those waiting for 2016 to come back will go broke.

2024 Full-Year Statistics

• Total flips completed: 297,885 single-family homes and condos
• Year-over-year change: Down 7.7% from 322,782 in 2023
• From 2022 peak: Down 32.4% from 441,000 flips
• Flips as share of all sales: 7.6% (down from 8.1% in 2023)
• Median purchase price: $243,000
• Median resale price: $315,000
• Median gross profit: $72,000 (up from $67,846 in 2023)
• Average time to flip: 162 days (down from 169 in 2023)
• Cash purchases: ~63% of all flip acquisitions

Q3 2025 Update (Most Recent Data)

• Flips completed: 72,217 properties (down from 75,977 in Q3 2024)
• Flips as share of sales: 6.8% (down from 7.0% in Q3 2024)
• Gross ROI: 23.1% — lowest since Q2 2008
• Median gross profit: $60,000 (down from $73,554 YoY)
• Median purchase price: $260,000
• Median resale price: $320,000
• Average days to flip: 161 days
• Cash purchase rate: 62.9%

Flip Activity by Volume (Q3 2025)

• Highest flip rates (1M+ population): Atlanta (13.6%), Birmingham (10.9%), Memphis (10.3%), Dallas (10.3%), Phoenix (9.9%)
• Lowest flip rates (1M+ population): Seattle (3.9%), Honolulu (4.1%), Hartford (4.3%), Rochester (4.6%), Pittsburgh (4.6%)
• Highest cash purchase rates: Flint, MI (85.3%), Erie, PA (84.3%), Youngstown, PA (84.1%), Cape Coral, FL (80.7%), Toledo, OH (80.4%)

The takeaway: National data tells you the game has changed. The 40-60% ROI era that defined 2009-2016 is gone. But within this compressed environment, specific markets are delivering 70%+ returns. Finding them requires granular analysis, not headline reading.

Distressed Inventory: Where the Deals Are Coming From

Flip opportunities start with distressed properties—foreclosures, pre-foreclosures, and motivated sellers. Understanding the foreclosure pipeline tells you where tomorrow’s deals will be. See ATTOM’s foreclosure tracking data for the latest state-by-state breakdown.

National Foreclosure Trends

• H1 2025 total filings: 187,659 properties (up 5.8% from H1 2024)
• Q2 2025 filings: 100,687 properties (up 13% YoY)
• National foreclosure rate: 1 in 758 housing units (0.13%)
• October 2025 starts: 25,129 properties (up 20% YoY)
• October 2025 REOs: 3,872 completions (up 32% YoY)

States with Highest Foreclosure Rates (Q1 2025)

1. Delaware: 1 in 761 housing units
2. Illinois: 1 in 857 housing units
3. Nevada: 1 in 874 housing units
4. Indiana: 1 in 976 housing units
5. South Carolina: 1 in 1,021 housing units

Metro Areas with Highest Foreclosure Activity (Q1 2025)

• Columbia, SC: 1 in 683 housing units
• Lakeland, FL: 1 in 694 housing units
• Bakersfield, CA: 1 in 718 housing units
• Riverside, CA: 1 in 721 housing units
• Chico, CA: 1 in 724 housing units

Foreclosure Timelines by State

• Longest: Louisiana (3,038 days), Hawaii (2,274 days), Kentucky (1,993 days)
• Shortest: New Hampshire (110 days), Texas (116 days), Wyoming (136 days)

Strategic insight: States with short foreclosure timelines (Texas, New Hampshire) create faster inventory turnover but more competition at auction. States with long timelines (Louisiana, Kentucky) require patience but often yield better discounts for pre-foreclosure negotiations. According to REsimpli data, foreclosure auctions generate the highest average revenue per deal at $34,358—outperforming MLS deals by nearly $5,000.

Top 10 Fix and Flip Markets for 2026

These rankings combine gross ROI performance, flip volume sustainability, days on market, foreclosure pipeline, and market stability. We’re not chasing outliers—we’re looking for repeatable, scalable opportunities backed by hard data.

1. Cleveland, OH — The ROI Champion

Key Metrics

• 2024 Gross ROI: 72% (up from 39.2% in 2023—largest YoY improvement among major metros)
• Q2 2025 Flip Rate: 11.2% of all home sales
• Cash Purchase Rate: 77.4% (among highest nationally)
• Ohio State Average ROI: 56% gross return
• Columbus Population Growth: 1.24% (2022-2023)—fastest-growing Midwest metro

Why it works: Cleveland delivered the largest ROI improvement of any major metro in 2024. Low acquisition costs ($50-80K for flip candidates) paired with realistic ARVs that buyers can actually qualify for create sustainable spreads. The deep rental market provides exit flexibility—if retail stalls, convert to a cash-flowing asset and refinance into a DSCR loan.

Typical deal structure: Purchase at $55K, invest $40K in rehab, ARV of $145-160K. Gross spread of $50-65K on $95K all-in—over 50% gross margin before holding costs.

Critical watch-outs: Pre-1950s housing stock means potential surprises: galvanized plumbing (budget $8-12K for copper replumb), knob-and-tube electrical ($5-15K to rewire), and foundation issues. Budget 15-20% contingency minimum. Get a sewer scope—Cleveland has significant clay pipe issues that can cost $10-25K to repair.

2. Pittsburgh, PA — The Triple-Digit Outlier

Key Metrics

• Q2 2025 Gross ROI: 106.8%—highest in the nation
• 2024 Full-Year ROI: 110.9% (down from 123.7% in 2023, but still 4x national average)
• Cash Purchase Rate: 76.9%
• Q3 2025 Flip Rate: 4.6%—low competition
• Pennsylvania State ROI: 80.2% (Q2 2024)—consistently top 3 nationally

Why it works: Extreme affordability on acquisitions (often under $70K) combined with stable employment from UPMC healthcare system and Carnegie Mellon/Pitt universities. Limited new construction keeps resale inventory tight. The relatively low flip rate (4.6%) means less competition per deal than Atlanta or Memphis.

Typical deal structure: Purchase at $45-70K, invest $35-50K in rehab, ARV of $140-180K. Doubling your money is realistic here.

Critical watch-outs: Same aging infrastructure concerns as Cleveland. Hillside properties may have significant foundation/drainage issues. Some neighborhoods are declining while others gentrify rapidly—hyperlocal knowledge is essential. Verify property access in winter; some Pittsburgh hills become impassable.

3. Birmingham, AL — The Migration Magnet

Key Metrics

• Q2 2025 Flip Rate: 11.8% of all home sales (among highest for 1M+ metros)
• Q3 2025 Flip Rate: 10.9%
• Alabama Median Home Price: $277,200 (January 2025)
• Alabama Days on Market: 72 days (up 9 days YoY)
• Alabama Housing Inventory: Up 10.6% YoY
• Migration Ranking: 6th most popular inbound state in 2024
• Cost of Living Index: 87.9—third lowest in the country

Why it works: Alabama’s inbound migration creates sustained buyer demand. Low cost of living attracts remote workers and retirees. Renovation costs run 15-25% below national averages. Strong rental demand in most neighborhoods provides exit flexibility.

Typical deal structure: Purchase at $85K, invest $42K in rehab, ARV of $185-200K. Gross spread of $58-73K.

Critical watch-outs: Neighborhood selection is everything. Run rental comps alongside retail comps to ensure exit flexibility. Some areas have limited buyer pools. Verify flood zone status—some Birmingham neighborhoods have FEMA requirements.

4. Memphis, TN — The Consistent Performer

Key Metrics

• Q2 2025 Flip Rate: 12.5%—top 5 nationally
• Q3 2025 Flip Rate: 10.3%
• Q2 2024 Gross ROI: 73.5% (up from 52.6% in Q2 2023)
• Tennessee Median Home Value: $309,450 (Q2 2025)
• State Income Tax: None

Why it works: Logistics sector employment (FedEx HQ) provides stable buyer demand regardless of broader economic cycles. Tennessee’s landlord-friendly laws and lack of state income tax make it attractive for both retail buyers and investors. Strong Section 8 demand in many areas offers a guaranteed rental exit.

Typical deal structure: Purchase at $75-110K, invest $40-55K in rehab, ARV of $175-220K.

Critical watch-outs: Insurance costs have climbed. Factor realistic coverage into your hold calculations. Verify flood zone status—some Memphis neighborhoods have changed FEMA classifications. Certain zip codes have crime rates that affect buyer pools and appraisal comps.

5. Indianapolis, IN — The Balanced Play

Key Metrics

• Indiana Median Home Price: $259,800 (January 2025)
• Indiana Days on Market: 34-43 days depending on area
• Indiana Home Sales Growth: Up 10.7% YoY
• Indiana Housing Inventory: Up 14.3% YoY
• Indianapolis Median Price: $223,697-260,000 depending on source
• Price Appreciation: 4.1-8.7% YoY
• Foreclosure Rate: 1 in 976 housing units (4th highest state)

Why it works: Larger metro than Cleveland or Birmingham with more liquidity on exit. The 34-day median DOM indicates strong buyer activity. Rising inventory (14.3% YoY) creates more acquisition opportunities. Central location and diverse economy reduce concentration risk.

Typical deal structure: Purchase at $115-150K, invest $45-60K in rehab, ARV of $240-290K.

Critical watch-outs: Competition from institutional build-to-rent buyers. Focus on properties outside institutional buy boxes—smaller lots, unique layouts, locations requiring local knowledge. Indiana’s foreclosure rate is 4th highest nationally, so distressed inventory should increase.

6. Columbus, OH — The Growth Engine

Key Metrics

• Q2 2025 Flip Rate: 10.5% (among 1M+ metros)
• Ohio Average ROI: 56% gross return—nearly double national average
• Population Growth: 1.24% (2022-2023)—fastest-growing Midwest metro
• CoStar Retail Ranking: #10 nationally for total return (10.2%) per CoStar 2025 report.

Why it works: More institutional and tech employment than Cleveland provides a deeper qualified buyer pool. Ohio State University creates consistent rental demand. Intel’s $20B chip manufacturing investment will drive further growth. Strong job expansion in insurance, healthcare, and tech sectors.

Typical deal structure: Purchase at $140-180K, invest $50-70K in rehab, ARV of $285-340K.

Critical watch-outs: Higher entry points than Cleveland mean tighter margins on smaller deals. Focus on $250K+ ARV properties where the math scales. Competition is heating up as more investors discover Ohio’s ROI advantage.

7. Atlanta, GA — The Volume Leader

Key Metrics

• Q2 2025 Flip Rate: 13.6%—third highest nationally
• Q3 2025 Flip Rate: Highest among all major metros
• Georgia Dominance: Multiple GA metros top national flip rankings (Warner Robins 18.5%, Macon 15.5%, Columbus GA 13%)
• Market Trend: Strong in-migration from Northeast and West Coast markets

Why it works: Massive metro with opportunities across the price spectrum. Georgia has become a national leader in flip activity. Strong employment from Delta, Home Depot, and tech sector. Population inflows continue despite broader Sunbelt cooling. Inner-ring suburbs offer the best flip dynamics. See our Georgia lending guide for state-specific considerations.

Typical deal structure: Purchase at $180-260K, invest $55-80K in rehab, ARV of $350-430K.

Critical watch-outs: Higher competition and entry points compress margins vs. Midwest. Traffic patterns matter—properties with terrible commutes to employment centers sell slower. The high flip rate (13.6%) means significant competition for deals.

8. Jacksonville, FL — The Affordable Florida Play

Key Metrics

• Florida FHA Activity: Lakeland 29.5%, other FL metros 25-30% of flipped homes to FHA buyers
• Florida Foreclosure Rate: 1 in 2,182 housing units—highest in nation (October 2025)
• Lakeland Foreclosure Rate: 1 in 694 housing units
• Florida Investor Trend: Coastal metros (Miami, Orlando, Fort Lauderdale) down 12-19%; inland/suburban resilient
• State Tax: No state income tax

Why it works: More affordable than Tampa or Orlando with similar fundamentals. Port and logistics growth drive employment. High FHA buyer activity indicates strong first-time buyer demand—a key exit market for renovated properties. Florida’s high foreclosure rate means increasing distressed inventory.

Typical deal structure: Purchase at $175-240K, invest $55-75K in rehab, ARV of $330-400K.

Critical watch-outs: Insurance is THE issue in Florida. Verify insurability and cost before acquisition—some properties are difficult or prohibitively expensive to insure. Skyrocketing premiums have caused investor activity to drop 12-19% in coastal metros. Focus on newer construction or elevated homes.

9. Tampa Bay, FL — The Resilient Sunbelt Market

Key Metrics

• CoStar Retail Ranking: #2 nationally (2025)
• Asking Rent Growth: 4.5%
• Total Return: 7.8%
• Availability Rate: 3.8%
• Investor Trend: Showing resilience vs. coastal FL metros facing insurance issues

Why it works: Tampa Bay has shown pockets of resilience while Miami, Orlando, and Fort Lauderdale struggle with insurance costs. Population growth continues. Entry points more accessible than South Florida. Strong tourism and job growth support rental and retail demand.

Typical deal structure: Purchase at $200-280K, invest $60-80K in rehab, ARV of $380-450K.

Critical watch-outs: Same insurance concerns as Jacksonville. Days on market have extended from 2021-2022 levels. Budget for 45-60 day holds minimum. Florida’s new building codes and flood insurance reforms are reshaping risk assessment—focus on newer construction and elevated properties.

10. Charlotte, NC — The Corporate Migration Play

Key Metrics

• CoStar Retail Ranking: #1 nationally (2025)
• Asking Rent Growth: 7.4%—highest in nation
• Total Return: 11.6%
• 2024 Flip Rate Change: Down 18.5% YoY—largest drop among major metros
• Key Drivers: Banking (BofA, Wells Fargo regional HQ), strong in-migration from Northeast

Why it works: Charlotte topped CoStar’s national retail market rankings for 2025. The 18.5% decline in flip rate means less competition for remaining operators. Strong job growth from banking and tech. Population inflows from Northeast continue. Renovation costs remain moderate vs. coastal markets.

Typical deal structure: Purchase at $200-280K, invest $55-75K in rehab, ARV of $380-460K.

Critical watch-outs: Institutional competition remains despite flip rate decline. Days on market have extended. Strong deal sourcing required—the easy acquisitions are gone. Focus on neighborhoods just outside city center where older homes await upgrades.

Markets to Approach with Extreme Caution

Not every market where people flip houses is a market where you should flip houses. The data is clear on where margins have collapsed or execution risk is unacceptably high.

Austin, TX — The Cautionary Tale

• 2024 Gross Profit: $8,844—essentially breakeven after carrying costs
• Context: Six of the 10 worst ROI markets in Q3 2024 were in Texas
• Problem: Prices corrected but not enough; buyer pools contracted; days on market extended

Austin was the darling of 2020-2022. Now it’s a margin graveyard. Unless you can buy at extreme discounts with strong contractor relationships, there are 50 easier markets.

Lubbock, TX — The Negative ROI Zone

• Gross ROI: -4.1%
• Gross Profit: -$9,431 per flip
• Status: Worst flip market in the nation

If you’re losing money on average before accounting for holding costs and transaction fees, you’re not investing—you’re donating. Two other metros also posted negative returns: Hilton Head Island-Bluffton-Beaufort, SC and Warner Robins, GA (despite high flip rates).

Coastal Florida (Miami, Orlando, Fort Lauderdale)

• Investor Activity Change: Miami -19%, Orlando -13%, Fort Lauderdale -12%
• Primary Driver: Skyrocketing insurance premiums and property tax hikes
• Foreclosure Rate: Florida leads nation at 1 in 2,182 housing units

Insurance costs are crushing coastal Florida flip economics. Even with increasing foreclosure inventory, carrying costs eat margins. Inland/suburban Tampa and Jacksonville are showing resilience; coastal metros are struggling.

Montana — The Loss Leader

• Q2 2025 Gross ROI: -1.4%
• Average Loss: $6,577 per flip
• Status: Only state with negative average flip ROI in Q2 2025

Remote location, limited buyer pools, high carrying costs relative to ARVs. Unless you’re a local with deep market knowledge, avoid.

San Antonio, TX — Proceed with Caution

• 2024 Gross Profit: $17,832—among lowest major metros
• Property Tax: High—significantly impacts holding costs
• Note: Better than Austin, but still challenging; military presence provides demand stability

San Antonio isn’t a disaster like Austin or Lubbock, but margins are thin. Only enter with established contractor relationships and fast execution capabilities. The military presence provides some demand stability.

Renovation Cost Reality Check

ATTOM estimates rehab costs typically run 20-33% of a property’s after-repair value. According to the 2025 U.S. Houzz & Home Study, American homeowners spent over $600 billion on renovations in 2024—50% higher than pre-pandemic levels. Here’s what you’re actually dealing with:

National Renovation Benchmarks

• Whole house renovation: $15-60 per square foot (cosmetic to mid-range)
• Gut renovation: $60-150 per square foot
• Kitchen remodel: $100-250 per square foot ($14,550-$40,400 mid-range)
• Bathroom remodel: $150-300 per square foot ($6,600-$28,000 typical)
• Labor portion: 40-60% of total renovation budget
• 2025 Tariff Impact: ~$10,900 additional per project (10% tariff on imported building products)

Regional Cost Variations

• California: $100-250/SF mid-range, $250+/SF luxury (Sacramento 2,000 SF = $200K-400K+)
• Florida: Higher due to hurricane codes, permit fees; ~$50K average per Angi
• Mississippi: $110-180/SF for new construction—among lowest nationally
• Hawaii: $300-600/SF—highest in nation
• Midwest/Southeast: 15-25% below national averages

High-ROI Renovation Focus Areas

• Minor kitchen remodel: 77.6% cost recouped at resale (East North Central region)
• Bathroom renovation: 35% of realtors recommend for sellers pre-listing
• 2025 buyer priorities: Energy efficiency, smart home features, modern design
• Best ROI strategy: Cosmetic upgrades over full rehabs to shorten timelines and reduce capital at risk

The 2026 Flip Economics: Minimum Thresholds

Here’s a framework for evaluating flip economics in the current environment. These aren’t aspirational—they’re minimum thresholds for deals worth pursuing:

Deal Underwriting Standards

• Gross margin target: 28-35% spread between all-in cost and ARV
• Net profit target: 12-18% of ARV after all costs
• Maximum purchase: 65-70% of ARV minus repairs
• Holding period budget: Plan for 165 days (national average); stress-test at 180+
• Rehab contingency: 15-20% minimum on older properties

Holding Cost Calculator

At current bridge loan rates of 10-12%, your monthly costs on a $300K loan:

• Interest (11% rate): ~$2,750/month
• Insurance: $150-300/month (varies by market)
• Utilities: $200-400/month
• Property taxes: $300-600/month (varies significantly)
• Total monthly burn: $3,500-4,000
• 6-month holding cost: $21,000-24,000

ROI by Purchase Price Band (Q3 2025 National Data)

• Under $50K purchase: -14% typical ROI (loss)
• $100K-200K purchase: 31% typical ROI—sweet spot
• Over $5M purchase: 28% typical ROI

BRRRR Strategy: The Flip Alternative

If retail flipping feels too risky, the BRRRR strategy (Buy, Rehab, Rent, Refinance, Repeat) offers capital recycling without retail timing risk. Many top flip markets are also excellent BRRRR markets because of strong rental demand.

Best BRRRR Markets 2026

• Pittsburgh, PA: Rental yields exceeding 9%; low acquisition costs
• Cleveland, OH: Strong rent-to-price ratios; immediate cash flow post-rehab
• Indianapolis, IN: Deep rental demand; institutional buyer interest validates thesis
• Birmingham, AL: Low entry points maximize capital recovery on refi
• Memphis, TN: Reliable Section 8 demand in many areas

BRRRR math: Buy deep enough that all-in cost (purchase + rehab) is 70-75% of ARV. Refinance at 75-80% LTV and recover most/all capital. Our DSCR loan program offers rate-term refinances at up to 80% LTV for qualified borrowers.

Rental Yield Comparison (2025)

• Pittsburgh/Cleveland: 9%+ gross rental yields
• National average: 7.45% (Q1 2025)
• San Francisco/Los Angeles: 3-4% yields—discouraging for new investment

Flip Financing in 2026

About 63% of flips nationally are purchased with all cash. In high-ROI markets like Cleveland (77.4%), Buffalo (81%), and Detroit (76.5%), cash dominance is even more pronounced. But you don’t need to be a cash buyer to compete.

AHL Fix-and-Flip Program

• Combined LTC: Up to 95%
• Rehab financing: Up to 100% of renovation costs
• Rate range: 9-12% depending on experience and deal quality
• Terms: 12-18 months with extension options
• Closing speed: 10 days typical
• Draw funding: 24-48 hours after inspection approval

For investors who want to hold flipped properties as rentals, we offer seamless transition to our DSCR loan program once the property is stabilized. One lender, two products, no gaps in your strategy.

The Bottom Line

The national flip market has structurally compressed. Gross ROI fell from 54% in 2016 to 23% in Q3 2025. But within that national decline:

• Cleveland: 72% ROI (2024)
• Pittsburgh: 107% ROI (Q2 2025)
• Buffalo: 109% ROI (2024)
• Memphis: 73.5% ROI (Q2 2024)
• Ohio statewide: 56% average ROI

The opportunity hasn’t disappeared—it’s concentrated. The investors who will thrive in 2026:

• Follow the data to high-ROI markets (Midwest, select Southeast)
• Buy at real discounts—foreclosure pipeline is growing (up 20% YoY)
• Execute renovations under 120 days to minimize carrying costs
• Target $100K-200K purchase range (31% average ROI—highest band)
• Price realistically based on actual recent comps
• Maintain exit flexibility—rental backup if retail stalls

Ready to discuss financing for your next flip? Get pre-qualified today or contact our team at (800) 745-9280. We’ll help you structure deals that work in this market—and tell you honestly when they don’t.

Data Sources

• ATTOM Data Solutions: Q2 2024, Q3 2024, Year-End 2024, Q1 2025, Q2 2025, Q3 2025 Home Flipping Report
• ATTOM Foreclosure Market Reports: Q1 2025, September 2025, October 2025
• CoStar Group: 2025 Retail Market Rankings
• Redfin Market Data: Days on market, inventory trends
• Zillow Home Value Index: Regional price trends
• Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED): Median home sale price data
• Angi/HomeGuide: Renovation cost benchmarks
• Journal of Light Construction: 2024 Cost vs. Value Report
• U.S. Houzz & Home Study 2024-2025
• State housing market reports: Houzeo, Bankrate